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Prediction for CME (2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-07-14T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12765/-1
CME Note: There was an M2.4 flare starting at 01:07, clear dimmings and rising/opening loops.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-07-16T05:14Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -69
Dst min. time: 2017-07-16T16:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-07-16T21:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter the full notification:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2017-07-14T01:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~750 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 40/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).

Activity ID: 2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001


Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2017-07-16T21:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-5 (below minor to minor).

Lead Time: 39.75 hour(s)
Difference: -16.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Barbara Thompson (GSFC) on 2017-07-14T13:29Z

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